Into 2024: Take the long view when planning for uncertain times

The World Economic Forum (WEF) estimates 75 per cent of organisations are unprepared for the pace of change and that 40 per cent of CEOs acknowledge their companies will fail in the next 10 years if they don’t do something about it. Sobering thoughts. 

Taking the long view has never been easy. At a time of economic pressure when political, technological and environmental forces are making many of us re-evaluate some of our most fundamental assumptions, it is, perhaps, particularly difficult. But understanding how to look ahead has never been more important. For companies, failure to navigate uncertainty and to respond quickly and strategically to shifts in circumstance can affect performance, damage the brand and hit the bottom line (think Blockbuster, Kodak, Nokia).

You don’t have to go it alone. There are a plethora of institutions, academics, organisations and government bodies that can provide support. They can assess where change might happen and help put plans in place to make the most of the opportunities and minimise the risks. Many publish reports that look at both short-term and macro trends as well as offering more long-term foresight. These can provide a focus to help identify change. The most impactful do not just predict the future but they differentiate between the possible and the probable. 

Combine this with the richness of corporate data that is now being analysed and reported on and you could argue that we have never been as informed about future challenges as we are today. And yet, individually and collectively, we continue to make decisions that may make sense in the short-term but have pretty terrible long-term consequences. Some would argue that the recent government decision to issue more drilling licences in the North Sea is a good example of this. What can be done to change things?

As Matt Peacock and Rod Cartwright have both already observed, there’s a lot to be said for putting your own house in order before taking a stand on wider social issues. Looking ahead and building a clear understanding of the context in which we operate and how it is changing, is very much part of that process.

So, how to begin? Here are a few suggestions which might help:  

1. Put a stake in the ground

Agree a time horizon that extends beyond the short-term so you don’t get distracted by current trends, but one that is not so far out that it slips into science fiction. Thinking ten years into the future is often a good starting point. 

2. Begin with a point of view

Although this should be informed and credible expect it to be challenged and reshaped. 

3. Agree what’s certain

Don’t waste time arguing about what you know to be true. There are certainties, things that will most definitely occur; take for example, imbalanced population growth, resource constraints, shifting power and influence, or interconnected systems.

4. Don’t extrapolate

If we look to the next couple of years, we can probably see a range of trends that are emerging or accelerating now that may become more influential and mainstream or may give way to the next fad or ideology. Although they are more possible than guaranteed, they are extrapolations of the world today so we can be reasonably confident about them. Look beyond this.

5. Get comfortable with uncertainty

The challenge of looking further out, to say five to 10 years’ time is to recognise that many of the changes that could take place may be significant departures from today’s reality and unlikely to be on the collective radar. Looking back over the last decade, few could have foreseen the ubiquity of facial recognition, have believed blockchain and cryptocurrencies would credible or expected that there would be an ongoing war in Europe. 

6. Listen to the unusual suspects

Of course, talk to the usual suspects, the global experts, and those who have a deep knowledge of a specific topic. But also talk to those who are not experts or who are experts in different disciplines, those from different cultures, markets and generations. We tend to have greater confidence in developments that may happen within our field of expertise and quite possibly discount things that might happen in other areas so, importantly, talk to those whose views are in stark contrast to your own.

7. Don’t play Chinese whispers

Too many organisations outsource their futures work to others and expect to gain insights from the final report. But why play a game of Chinese whispers? How can a third-party organisation, however talented, be expected to understand your business as well as you do? Sure, let others do the legwork, but be present and contribute to the discussions.

8. Accommodate wild cards

It’s often easy to focus only on the high impact, high probability future. While this is clearly important, it’s worth remembering that high impact, low probability events can also be the source of major change. Pragmatic organisations need to focus as much on these possibilities as on the probabilities. By setting up an early warning system that tracks identified high impact low probability events, a pandemic for example, organisations can have a richer picture of the opportunities and threats ahead.

9. Create stories

A set of scenarios, stories about how the future may evolve, can capture a range of possibilities and bring it all to life. Take care that these are not be presented as predictions, rather design them to stretch thinking and explore the dynamics that might alter, inhibit or enhance current trends.

10. Share knowledge

Many of the breakthroughs we need for a better future are likely to emerge at the intersection of different areas or disciplines. Sharing knowledge and learning how complex challenges have been addressed by others in different industries or markets can create a rich seam of ideas.  

We can’t hide from the future so we might as well embrace it. Articulating complex challenges and considering the different ways they are being addressed can not only help reduce risk, shape strategy and identify opportunity but in our fractious world, this sort of collaboration can also create lasting relationships, build bridges, earn trust and, most importantly of all, prepare us for change.

Caroline Dewing is co-founder of Future Agenda and a Blurred cohort member. This blog was originally published by communications, management and sustainability consultancy Blurred as Time for the unusual suspects.